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Estimating and understanding countries' peace index with GDELT

Our objective is to measure the Global Peace Index (GPI) at a monthly frequency, as compared to the official annual GPI score, to have more frequent updates of peacefulness. To tackle this task, we apply machine learning techniques, exploiting information extracted from a new digital data source called Global Data on Events, Location, and Tone (GDELT). We also apply the SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanation) methodology to identify the most important variables that contribute to the estimation of the index. Through the important variables analysis we highlight each country's profile and we identify and explain the events that drive the errors in the predictions. Our data, machine learning and SHAP code and be found in the following link: https://github.com/VickyVouk/GDELT_GPI_SHAP_project

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Additional Info
Field Value
Group Demography, Economy and Finance 2.0
Involved People Voukelatou, Vasiliki, vasiliki.voukelatou@sns.it, orcid.org/0000-0003-2445-5248
State Complete
Thematic Cluster Social Data [SD]
system:type Experiment
Management Info
Field Value
Author Vasiliki VOUKELATOU
Maintainer VOUKELATOU Vasiliki
Version 1
Last Updated 7 September 2023, 17:37 (CEST)
Created 10 June 2021, 17:04 (CEST)